Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation - Ivan results

Enhanced Advanced Wind Estimation (AWE) is a function of HURRTRAK RMPRO and HURRTRAK Advanced that applies a wind speed correction factor to the forecast wind speeds based on the local “site” characteristics.  These characteristics include the type of land usage in the surrounding area.

The following table shows the maximum sustained wind speeds for NWS ASOS locations as estimated by HURRTRAK's standard (old) and Advanced (new) method as well as the actual wind speeds measured for these locations.  All wind speeds are 2 minute sustained winds in knots.

 

Location State Max Wind  Max Wind Actual  Standard AWE Standard AWE
    Standard AWE Max Method Method Pct  Pct
    (knots) (knots) Wind Error Error Error Error
                 
KPNS - Pensacola * FL 100 76 71 29 5 40.85 7.04
Fairhope * AL 112 67 59 53 8 89.83 13.56
KMOB - Mobile AL 100 59 51 49 8 96.08 15.69
KDHN -  Dothan AL 54 39 44 10 5 22.73 11.36
KGPT - Gulfport MS 65 38 38 27 0 71.05 0.00
KTCL - Tuscaloosa AL 53 32 36 17 4 47.22 11.11
KNEW - New Orleans LA 46 28 35 11 7 31.43 20.00
KTLH -  Tallahassee FL 43 28 33 10 5 30.30 15.15
KMGM - Montgomery AL 64 47 32 32 15 100.00 46.88
KPFN - Panama City FL 57 32 32 25 0 78.13 0.00
KBVE - Venice LA 66 49 31 35 18 112.90 58.06
KATL - Atlanta GA 38 20 31 7 11 22.58 35.48
KABY - Albany GA 43 33 29 14 4 48.28 13.79
KMSY - New Orleans LA 43 28 29 14 1 48.28 3.45
KBHM - Birmingham AL 50 28 28 22 0 78.57 0.00
KAAF - Apalachicola FL 47 28 28 19 0 67.86 0.00
KPDK - Atlanta GA 35 27 25 10 2 40.00 8.00
KASD - Slidell LA 48 26 24 24 2 100.00 8.33
KANB - Anniston AL 45 26 23 22 3 95.65 13.04
KFFC - Atlanta GA 36 24 22 14 2 63.64 9.09
K40J -  Perry-Foley FL 37 22 22 15 0 68.18 0.00
KMCN - Macon GA 37 29 19 18 10 94.74 52.63
KVLD - Valdosta GA 36 27 19 17 8 89.47 42.11
                 
          21.48 5.13 66.86 16.73
 

 * FCMD station

This analysis of Ivan's actual max wind speed show an average error improvement from 21 knots (using NHC raw interpolation) to 5 knots (using AWE).   The highlights of this analysis are... 

23 observation points			
Actual Wind speeds from 71 to 19 knots			
Error <= 5 knots, AWE - 65%, Standard- 0%			
Error <= 10 knots, AWE - 87%, Standard - 4%			
Error <= 15 knots, AWE - 96%, Standard - 39%
Error <= 20 knots, AWE - 100%, Standard - 57%
Average Percent error, AWE - 17%, Standard - 67%

 

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